Three things to watch: Arizona vs. Cal

It was one of the scariest moments I can remember seeing on a football field.

In last week’s game against Oregon State, Cal’s stellar tailback Jahvid Best sprinted toward the end zone -- just like he’d done dozens of times before. Best was met at the goal line by OSU’s Cameron Collins and propelled high into the air.

I mean, just look at that picture to the right. It’s as if Best was vaulted off of a trampoline.

From there, Best fell head first into the stiff turf. His arms went rigid -- an even more frightening sight, considering that Best had suffered a mild concussion in practice earlier that week.

His teammates stood in shock as Best was carted off the field. It was the kind of moment that left a pit deep in your stomach. Everyone watching and participating in this game does so with the implicit understanding that something terrible can happen at any moment. Strip away the strategizing and football is, at its core, a loosely organized collection of crashes. Some crashes are worse than others. Best’s was one of the worst.

Thankfully, Best is alright, all things considered, but he obviously won’t be playing in Saturday’s game against the Arizona Wildcats (6-2, 4-1 Pac-10). The game will be aired on Versus at 5 p.m.

Clearly, Best makes Cal a better football team (in the understatement of the year). He’s one of the nation’s most dynamic offensive threats and (health permitting) has the talent of a first-round draft pick. Prior to the season, he was considered a dark-horse Heisman candidate, before the Golden Bears (6-3, 3-3) were blown out in back-to-back games against Oregon and USC.

Without Best, casual observers would probably assume that Arizona will win this game in a walk. After all, the Wildcats are ranked No. 17 in the BCS and control their destiny for the conference championship.

Also, Cal has had its fair share of struggles, even with Best in the line-up. The Bears are giving up 382 yards per game (76th in the nation) and quarterback Kevin Riley hasn’t been consistent enough to keep opponents from loading up their defenses against the run. Remember, Cal was ranked as high as No. 7 earlier in the year before falling flat on its face in its two biggest games of the year (losing 42-3 at Oregon, 30-3 versus USC).

However, those casual observers would be best advised to take this game seriously. In fact, this is a secretly terrifying match-up for these three reasons:

No. 1: Win it for Best.

Never, ever, EVER underestimate a team that is emotionally reeling from a devastating injury. There isn’t a stronger force in sports than the “everyone is counting us out because our star is out; we’ll show them!” factor.

The Bears were too stunned to perform against Oregon State last week, but don’t look for that to be much of an issue on Saturday. Expect Best’s teammates to perform at their best for him.

Never underestimate a talented team playing with this level of motivation.

No. 2: Best’s back-up isn’t half bad, either.

When Best was taken out of the game, it’s not like Cal had to scramble and plug in some kid who had never touched the ball before. Shane Vereen would be a starter for just about any other college football team.

While he might not be as shifty and elusive as Best, Vereen might actually have more straight-line speed. In relief of Best this season, Vereen has tallied 386 yards (5.1 yards per carry) and six scores.

Arizona’s defense did a pretty decent job keeping Stanford’s Toby Gerhart contained, but he’s more of a punishing between-the-tackles runner, while Vereen wants to take it to the outside and out-run linebackers. He’s similar to those Rodgers brothers at Oregon State -- each of whom had some success against UA’s defense, but ultimately lost 37-32, thanks to a remarkable effort from Nick Foles.

Where Best’s absence will hurt is when Vereen needs to take a breather. That one-two rushing punch is what made Cal’s offense special. Freshman Covaughn DeBoskie-Johnson has shown flashes, but it’ll be the Shane Vereen show on Saturday.

No. 3: Cal is at home and still very dangerous.

The Golden Bears are considered a disappointment (and on some level, rightly so) because they’ve failed to live up to their preseason billing. Remember, they were supposed to battle Oregon for the chance to dethrone USC this year.

While Arizona is riding high in the polls, Cal has gotten this reputation as the conference’s biggest underachievers. Yet Arizona is only a half-game better than Cal in overall record.

Jeff Tedford teams are consistently fast and consistently successful. His track record speaks for itself.

Throw in the fact that Berkeley is never an easy place to play, and Arizona is in for a heck of a battle today.

“I hate playing there,” said defensive tackle Daniel Horton during Monday’s press conference. “Everything is so cramped there. Nobody can get comfortable.”

There’s also this: Arizona hasn’t been truly tested in quite a while. You have to go back to that remarkable win over Stanford on Oct. 17. The Cats didn’t play that well against UCLA, but the Bruins’ offense wasn’t able to put any pressure on Arizona’s D. Then there was the bye week, and the homecoming blowout over the dreadful Washington State squad. The last time UA went on the road was Oct. 10 -- the bizarre Washington loss. Also, the Cats are 1-2 on the road this year.

Lastly, Cal is still angling for a big bowl game and would love nothing more than to knock off the highly rated Arizona Wildcats -- a squad with fans fantasizing about running the table and going to the Rose Bowl. The look-ahead factor in this game is off the charts.

Prediction: I just spent the last 900 words or so explaining why Arizona might be in for more than it bargained for, and I’m still going to pick the Wildcats.

Why? Diversity.

Cal’s defense has struggled to stop anyone all year, while Arizona has been successful moving the ball in every game since Nick Foles took over the starting QB job. Nic Grigsby is still questionable with that shoulder injury, but offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes has been on fire with his play calling with Foles under center. Arizona simply has too many options, too many formations, too many different looks. I also look for Matt Scott to come into this game every once in a while and run that modified Wildcat scheme successfully.

Meanwhile, Arizona’s defense is playing with serious confidence after thrashing UCLA and Washington State. Granted, Cal has far more talent than either of those teams, but I like this match-up for UA’s defense. Brooks Reed’s return and Ricky Elmore’s emergence as a lethal pass rusher has made it easier for corners Devin Ross and Trevin Wade to lock down wideouts. Arizona would get into trouble when the opposing QB would have four seconds or more to throw. As long as UA’s front four can get good pressure, this defense is as athletic and opportunistic as anyone’s.

In addition, UA’s much maligned special teams is playing with confidence, too. The Wildcats went from worst to first in punt return average in that Washington State massacre. Yes, you have to take any numbers compiled against the Cougars with a grain of salt (perhaps an entire salt shaker), but the special teamers now realize that they can, in fact, alter the outcome of a game.

Arizona is on a mission. Nick Foles is the conference’s best quarterback (sorry, Jeremiah Masoli). Mike Stoops might win Pac-10 Coach of the Year (imagine saying something like that three years ago?). The Wildcats can’t afford to have a letdown this week.

Grizzled UA fans will tell you that this is exactly when this squad crashes back to earth. “Never get your hopes up,” they’ll say. “They’ll always let you down.”

I say to heck with that. Get those hopes up. Enjoy the ride. Believe.

Arizona 38, Cal 28.

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