Three things to watch: UA versus Stanford

Arizona hosts Stanford at 4:30 p.m. Saturday, with Versus providing television coverage.

It wasn’t long ago when a football game between Arizona and Stanford had little impact on the Pac-10 race or the bowl picture.

Boy, how things have changed.

Despite the fact that each team is coming off a tough loss, Saturday’s match-up between the Wildcats and the Cardinal will be pivotal in shaping the Pac-10 picture going forward — and could have lingering effects on potential bowl contention.

We all know about Arizona’s wild 36-33 loss to Washington. Delashaun Dean is on the record saying he’ll never wear those shoes again.

Stanford had a week it’d like to forget, as well, losing 38-28 to the Oregon State Beavers. Once those Rodgers brothers (Jacquizz and James) got rolling in the first half, Stanford had a tough time clawing back into it.

When Mike Stoops and Jim Harbaugh look back on the 2009 season, each will likely circle Oct. 17 as the day where things turned — for better or worse.

Two good teams, constrasting styles, both coming off a loss, must-win mentalities — what more could a college football fan want?

Last year, Stanford captured a last-second 24-23 victory on its home turf. How will it turn out this season?

Keep an eye on these three factors:

No. 1: Toby Gerhart versus a short-handed defensive line.

While Cal’s Jahvid Best came into the season with all the hype, Gerhart might be this conference’s steadiest tailback. In fact, I’d argue he’s the best player nobody seems to talk about.

Gerhart ranks No. 1 nationally with 746 rushing yards. He picks up more than five yards a carry and has crossed the goal line 10 times. After bursting on the scene last year, the 6-foot-1, 235-pound senior is almost certain to be seeing action on Sundays next year. He’s just a load to bring down.

Gerhart rushed for 116 yards and scored the game-winning touchdown in last year’s match-up. This year, he’ll be facing a defensive line that might be without stellar tackle Earl Mitchell, who missed last week’s game at Washington after suffering a freak concussion. Mitchell was walking down the halls of McKale Center, when he collided with a door that was suddenly flung open.

“Losing Earl — especially like that — was really tough for us,” Stoops said on Monday.

Gerhart gets most of his yards between the tackles, so Arizona’s interior defense will need to step up its game in its biggest test of the season. The Wildcats did a terrific job bottling up Jacquizz Rodgers on Sept. 26, but Gerhart is a different type of runner.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck is talented enough to keep the UA defense honest, but his receivers haven’t been the most consistent bunch. Drops plagued the Cardinal in that 38-28 loss at Corvallis.

No. 2: Where’s the running game?

Remember when Arizona’s rushing attack was ranked in the top-10 nationally?

Since starting Pac-10 play, those stats have taken a hit, as the Wildcats come into this week’s game ranked 25th.

The reason is two-fold: First, any team’s numbers will look inflated after starting out the season against Central Michigan and Northern Arizona. Second, Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin have missed large chunks of the last two games with lingering injuries — a shoulder for Grigsby, an ankle for Antolin.

While punishing redshirt freshman Greg Nwoko has shown some promise as his workload has increased, he’s not the same kind of receiver or blitz reader as Grigsby or Antolin.

As a result, Arizona’s running game was replaced with that bubble-screen attack that became a staple of the Willie Tuitama era. Since Washington was stacking eight or nine men in the box during the second half, Nick Foles was able to connect on as many short screens as he wanted, eventually ending up with 384 yards on 39/53 passing.

Those plays are effective at moving the ball between the 20s, but the one-dimensional offensive attack causes many UA drives to stall in the red zone. Last week’s game at Washington would’ve been a blowout in Arizona’s favor, had the squad been able to punch the ball into the end zone instead of settling for four short Alex Zendejas field goals (none longer than 29 yards).

No. 3: Home cooking.Thanks to an unfortunate scheduling quirk, the Wildcats haven’t played a game in front of their fans since Sept. 12.

Three consecutive road games (with a bye week stuffed in there) will take its toll on any team. Losing at Iowa doesn’t look too bad in hindsight, considering the Hawkeyes are close to cracking the AP top-10. And the Cats played well enough to win at Washington, but couldn’t close it out.

Saturday’s game against Stanford begins a crucial stretch of three straight Pac-10 home games (with a bye week on Halloween). If Arizona hopes to remain in bowl contention, it needs to defend its home turf — something this team has done quite well in recent years (11-4 since the 2007 season).

Arizona leads the series 13 wins to 11, but lately, these Arizona/Stanford games tend to come down to the wire (24-23 in 2008, 21-20 Stanford in 2007). Expect another tight ballgame on Saturday. I look for Gerhart to have a big day, but for Arizona to do a solid job controlling the clock with its short passing game (39 minutes of possession against Washington). In addition, the home crowd will likely provide a big boost for the Wildcats, especially after so much time away from Tucson.

Prediction: Arizona 31, Stanford 28.

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