Guest Comment: A look at prediction 6 months later

On Nov. 2, 2008, the Green Valley News printed my comment, “Election Effects—A Prediction.”

Since we have passed the six-month timetable, my comments on the results appear below, by topic and timing.

Within six months

Energy: The curtailing of offshore drilling in new areas is effectively in place. The billions of dollars for alternative energy are only partially in place. The remaining funding is in the “Cap and Tax” (oops, Cap and Trade) bill, which will make a lot of money for a favored few, cost you and me dollars for our needs, and do little global good without the rest of the world participating.

Immigration: Permanent Interstate 19 checkpoint much in doubt; temporary checkpoint upgrade delayed; amnesty legislation still being pushed and promised; border fence completion??; Border “Czar” promises increased tightening.

Labor Relations: “Card check,” aka the Employer Free Choice Act, surprisingly not passed. Many in Congress seem to realize the drastic effects this would have on labor relations, despite the heavy lobbying by the Service Employees International Union.

Economy/Financial Crisis: The $787 billion stimulus package seems to be faltering despite the rush to get it passed. Unemployment heads to double digits, but the federal government is hiring people. Some White House insiders are whispering about another stimulus and government health care proposal costs ($billions?). Also, now Sen. Dodd and Congressman Frank want to lower financing requirements for condos (especially in New England.)

Taxes: I was wrong about a retroactive change to the tax code, but Congress has proposed increased capital gains and payroll taxes and new tax bracket penalties, ostensibly to pay for health care “reform” and an end to the much lamented “Bush tax cuts.”

“Fairness Doctrine:” The effort to control talk radio and cable TV hopeful is faltering in Congress, but there appears to be administration forays into controls via the Federal Communications Commission instead.

Within 12 to 18 months

Trade Policy: NAFTA renegotiation has not come forth publicly. Colombian trade agreement still blocked in the Senate and still little interest in that country by the Administration—one of our few friends in Latin America. Honduras also bears watching, but hopefully we won’t follow the Chavez, Castro, etc. approach.

Iraq/Afghanistan: Plenty of crises: Iran, Israel/Palestine, Russia, Nuclear Arms Treaty, etc., all in flux and this is not a forecast. Hopefully, President Obama will discontinue apologizing to the world for our country’s past. It seems to be that we have been the rescuer during wars and disaster, so what is there to apologize for? Also, regarding nuclear arms reduction, the President should carefully consider the advice of former Energy Secretary James Schlesinger, if we are to be able to continue to protect ourselves and allies and avoid large-scale nuclear proliferation.

Federal Court/Supreme Court Appointments: Prediction was correct. As the President and his Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel have said: “We won.”

One curious development is the presidential appointment of “czars” to deal with many specific area—over 30 of them. Some report to the White House, some to departments which would usually handle these matters. Even Sen. Byrd of West Virginia has questioned this lack of congressional confirmation and oversight, as well as public scrutiny.

In closing, I assume some approve of what is happening. Obviously, I do not. Hopefully, reason will prevail.

Green Valley resident Glenn Lundell is a retired manager and consultant in human resources, with experience in naval intelligence and security. The views expressed above are the writer’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of this newspaper.