DUGOUT: Debuts provide little predictive value

First impressions are hard to change. Indeed, how you act around people the first time you see them may be the first thing that comes to their mind whenever they see you in the future.

In baseball, though, debuts rarely provide predictive evidence as to the future career of the player.

As Abraham Lincoln said, “I don’t like that man. I must get to know him better.” In order to know a baseball player’s true value one must not base their assumptions on his debut. Only until a player has fully adjusted to the league should one judge a player.

But let’s stop with the hypothetical.

Justin Upton, who some considered to be the best prospect in baseball a few short years ago, made his debut for our Arizona Diamondbacks on Aug. 2, 2007. He played only a few innings, but fouled out in his first at-bat.

Upton didn’t get a hit until his third game and finished the season with an awful batting line of .221/.283/.364.

This year, though, Upton is a prime candidate for many major awards. That’s a far cry from barely topping the Mendoza line his first season, but a genuine excuse can be made because of the fact that Upton was just 19 years old in 2007.

In 2009, Upton was hitting an outstanding .316/.395/.589 through June 12.

Two of the most highly touted prospects in baseball have made their debuts this year.

Baltimore Orioles star catcher Matt Wieters, who some say is Joe Mauer with more power, made his debut as a 23-year-old on May 29. The media lavished attention on Wieters and most of the 42,704 people packed into Oriole Park at Camden Yards expected Wieters to hit for the cycle.

They were sorely disappointed.

Weiters went 0-4 and was the only Oriole starter without a hit in a 7-6 victory over the Detroit Tigers.

Although it’s still far too early to tell, Wieters has a batting average of just .250.

Tommy Hanson, whose debut has been anticipated by Atlanta Braves’ fans for years, made his first start on June 7.

Hanson has been with the Braves since being drafted in the 22nd round of the 2005 MLB Draft. He tore through the minor leagues at an incredible clip and had an ERA of 1.50 in his 11 starts at Triple-A this year.

Scouting reports from reputable sources claim that Hanson can be a top-of-the-rotation ace. On June 7, Hanson was roughed up for six earned runs on six hits during six innings. He gave up three home runs in the contest.

This was clearly not what Braves’ fans were hoping for.

As sportswriter Arthur Daley put it, “There is a certain amount of fascination to the big league debut of any athlete. Sometimes they are incredible successes. Sometimes they are frenetic failures.”

Although it doesn’t come from Major League Baseball, you’ll no doubt find this story about a high school game in Iowa interesting.

According to The Associated Press, an umpire ejected roughly 100 fans in attendance at a baseball game between Winfield-Mount Union and West Burlington on June 13.

He claimed the fans were acting “unruly,” and called the police as a precautionary measure, although they said that they didn’t notice any unusual behavior. None of the student-athletes was asked to leave.

The Kansas City Royals have been on the brunt end of some awful seasons and the receivers of some awful luck.

The game on June 11, though, may have topped them all.

In the bottom of the 10th inning, the hosting Cleveland Indians had a runner on third with Shin-Soo Choo at the plate. He hit a line-drive up the middle and directly into an inactive flock of seagulls, throwing outfielder Coco Crisp off his game and allowing the Indians to score the winning run.

Randy Johnson also had a forgetful experience with birds a few years back. Although video of the accident is rare, Johnson threw a fastball in the mid-90s toward home plate. In the middle of the ball’s flight a dove swooped down and got in the path of the baseball. I don’t think I need to say what happened next.

There’s no telling whether or not Crisp could have fielded the ball and thrown the runner out at home plate without the flock of birds interfering. What is known, though, is that this could be among the most bizarre way to lose a game in baseball history.

Andrew Kneeland will be a junior at Sahuarita High School. He is an intern at the Green Valley News.