Analysis: Sahuarita election was about big money, influence

The BEG for Change Committee accomplished its goal in last week’s town election, sweeping all three council seats.

Voter turnout in the general election increased dramatically over the primary in the two precincts that include Rancho Sahuarita, where developer Bob Sharpe and BEG focused their efforts. In those precincts, election winners Duane Blumberg, Kara Egbert and Rosanna Gabaldon trounced their opponents by two-to-one and three-to one margins, even though two of their opponents, incumbents John Sullivan and Roger Minor, live in that community. Of the winners, only Egbert lives in Rancho Sahuarita.

Turnout shot up by 81 percent in north Rancho Sahuarita’s Precinct 392 in the general election, and 84 percent in south Rancho’s Precinct 395, which includes other neighborhoods.

Meanwhile, the number of votes cast rose by only 19 percent in the remaining five precincts, where turnout had been higher in the primary. As a result, 935 more votes were cast in the two Rancho Sahuarita precincts in the general election than in the primary election, while just 410 more votes were cast in the other five precincts.

The three non-BEG candidates, Sullivan, Minor and Alex Jacome, finished in the top three in Precinct 258 (west of La Canada Drive, south of Twin Buttes Road) and Precinct 407, which straddles the freeway roughly north of Paseo Famoso. Those precincts are home to Jacome, Mayor Lynne Skelton and Town Council member Charles Oldham.

The BEG committee operated independently of the candidates.

Focus on fund-raising

The lesson from the election could be to raise money — and spend it. The town has never seen such a focus on campaign fundraising and spending — more than $20,000 by April 29 — for Town Council positions that pay $500 a month. The move drew fire from many people who didn’t like the outside influence in a local election.

Of the winners, Gabaldon spent $9,720 by April 29, the latest campaign finance reports available, and Egbert spent $2,554. Gabaldon had to lend her committee $350, while Egbert reported she still owed a vendor money at that point. The final campaign reports are due June 18. Blumberg remained under the $500 reporting threshold. BEG raised $5,460, much of it from out of state, and spent $4,208.

Among the losers, Sullivan and Minor remained under the $500 limit and Jacome raised $2,287, but spent just $240 by April 29, less than three weeks before mail-in ballots were due. The campaign included strong participation by the Democratic Party of Pima County, which backed Gabaldon (Sullivan turned down its support), a media consultant hired by Egbert, and Sharpe’s frequent BEG for Change e-mails to residents of Rancho Sahuarita.

Town-wide, Blumberg received 2,741 votes; Egbert 2,498; and Gabaldon 2,072. Sullivan was bounced from office with 1,925 votes; Alex Jacome had 1,492; and Minor, 1,315.

Second-place Egbert beat fifth-place finisher Alex Jacome by 1,006 votes, so the only close race was for third place, where Gabaldon defeated Sullivan, a target of Sharpe/BEG for Change, by 147 votes.

Though Gabaldon outspent Sullivan about 20 to 1, and though BEG and Sharpe constantly berated the incumbents over economic development and the council’s delay in informing the public about a proposed detention center, Sullivan defeated Gabaldon in five of the town’s seven precincts by a total of 546 votes. One of those was Gabaldon’s home Precinct 414, roughly south of Paseo Famoso on both sides of the freeway, where she finished third behind Egbert and Sullivan.

However, Gabaldon far outpaced Sullivan in the Rancho Sahuarita precincts, beating him by 693 votes.

More showed up

The overall turnout for the general election was 41.2 percent, compared to a 28.7 percent turnout for the primary in March.

Northern Rancho Sahuarita’s Precinct 392, where residents recently beat an attempt to place a detention center on tribal land, has 3,307 registered voters, the largest in town. It increased its turnout rate from 21 percent to 38.5 percent, according to registration figures from the Pima County Recorder’s office and voting figures from the county Elections Department. Precinct 395, which includes southern Rancho Sahuarita and other areas, saw its turnout rate rise from 19 percent to 36 percent. Together they include about 49 percent of the town’s 11,592 registered voters and 44.5 percent of those who cast ballots in the general election.

Rancho Resort led the way with 72 percent turnout and Quail Creek and Madera Highlands had 56 percent. Other areas ranged from 27 percent (Precinct 414) to 40 percent in precincts 258 and 407. The town-wide increase in votes was 1,345.

Undervoting

Hundreds of voters in Quail Creek or Madera Highlands failed to vote for three candidates, as allowed, and so Precinct 314 voters cast an average of 2.21 votes per ballot.

In contrast, the retirement community of Rancho Resort saw voters cast an average of 2.93 votes each.

The Town average was 2.7, as the 4,669 ballots cast could have meant three times that, or 14,007 total votes, but instead 12,065 were cast. Voters in Precinct 314 accounted for almost half the town-wide drop-off, as they left 1,046 votes uncast after Vice Mayor Phil Conklin urged his Quail Creek neighbors to vote for Blumberg, noting that there is no requirement to vote for three candidates.

The second place total in Precinct 314, Sullivan’s 537, was almost 500 votes behind Blumberg’s leading total of 1,010. No other precinct showed such a large drop-off from first to second. Egbert rolled up the second largest vote in any precinct, with 965 in Precinct 392, but still only led Blumberg by 167 there.

In the two Rancho Sahuarita precincts, the 2,086 voters cast 5,732, an average of 2.75, or just over the town average.

The largest vote-getter in any one precinct was Blumberg, who got 1,010 votes in Precinct 314, which includes his home, Quail Creek, and Madera Highlands. There were 1,334 votes cast there.

Blumberg finished last in precincts 407 and 414 along Interstate 19 to La Canada Drive and Avenida de Augusto, getting the smallest vote total of any candidate in any precinct, 60 in Precinct 407.

Sullivan, Minor and Blumberg led, in that order, in Rancho Resort, Precinct 357. In Precinct 314, Quail Creek and Madera Highlands, it was Blumberg, Sullivan and Egbert.

Home-field advantage was mixed for the others: Rancho Sahuarita resident Egbert won both of the master planned community’s precincts handily, but fellow residents Minor and Sullivan were trounced. Jacome finished second to Sullivan in Precinct 258. The lowest voter turnout, 27 percent, was in Precinct 414, where Gabaldon lives, though she spent the most money.

pfranchine@sahuaritasun.com | 547-9738