LIVE BLOG: Louisville 103, Arizona 64

Hello and welcome to the unlikeliest Live Blog of the University of Arizona season.

When I started these blogs, I certainly didn’t expect to still be posting them on March 27. But here we are.

Arizona (21-13) -- the last team standing from the Pac-10 -- squares off against No. 1 Louisville for a berth in the Elite Eight.

Subplots? This game has them in spades.

First, we all know about the “interim” tag that has been placed before head coach Russ Pennell’s title all season. Arizona won’t be bringing him back to coach full-time, which seems very strange in the moment, considering that the left-for-dead Wildcats are one of 14 teams still alive in this tourney. But Arizona has made it clear that a coach with a lengthy, successful track record is the only possible option to permanently succeed Lute Olson.

The (completely unsubstantiated) rumor mill has Rick Pitino -- yes, the same Rick Pitino coaching Louisville today -- as one of the possible coaches interested in the position. Once Pitino’s house-hunting in Southern Arizona became public knowledge, people jumped to some conclusions. Will Pitino become a Wildcat for the second time (remember, he led Kentucky to a lot of success in the SEC)? Nobody knows for certain, but it’s certainly adding another layer of intrigue to an already fascinating game.

Anticipation has reached a fever pitch throughout Southern Arizona. No matter what happens today, Pennell and this scrappy Wildcat squad have accomplished what was perceived as impossible five months ago. Faith has been restored in the basketball program.

There’s no turning back now. The No. 12-seed Wildcats didn’t make the trip to Indianapolis to lay down against Pitino’s red-hot Cardinals -- winners of 12 straight, including a Big East tourney crown. The Cats and their fans all believe that they can win this thing.

Is that optimism misguided?

THE PESSIMIST’S VIEW: Let’s face facts. Louisville is relentless. Pitino’s teams press the opponent to death for 40 minutes and simply wear them out. Nic Wise has played out of his mind the first two rounds, but he hasn’t seen anything even remotely resembling Louisville’s press this tournament. Wise, who is already prone to turnovers, might spin out of control and cough the ball up, leading to easy Louisville buckets. Plus, if Wise gets into foul trouble -- like he did last round against Cleveland State -- how comfortable are the Wildcats moving Chase Budinger over to point guard or allowing freshman Kyle Fogg to handle the ball in the back court?

Louisville feels comfortable running eight or nine guys out there during crucial minutes. That depth is necessary when you play at a frenetic pace like the Cardinals do. They will dare the Wildcats to run with them. If the game turns into a track meet, Arizona’s short rotation might not be able to keep up.

Plus, it also must be mentioned that Arizona defeated Utah and Cleveland State -- a couple of solid teams, but nowhere near as talented or athletic as Louisville. That’s like playing a round at the local pitch-and-putt as a warm-up for Augusta National.

Look, we all love Russ Pennell. He’s a great guy and he’s done a fantastic job keeping this team motivated and positive throughout the rough stretches. But he’s an interim coach who is still learning as he goes along. Pitino, on the other hand, is arguably the best coach in college basketball. Advantage: Louisville.

The Cardinals have proven all season long that it is one of the elite programs in the nation. A couple of decent Arizona wins at the right time doesn’t change that.

THE OPTIMIST’S VIEW: While the Cardinals have won a dozen in a row, the last two have not been impressive at all. Play-in-game winners Morehead State were only down a bucket at the half, and No. 9 Siena gave Louisville everything it could handle for roughly 38 minutes. Arizona is MUCH more talented than either of those teams.

A team with two future NBA first-round picks playing with nothing to lose? That is a dangerous recipe for a team like Louisville.

Wise is playing as well as any point guard in the nation right now. As long as he plays within himself and doesn’t get too out of control, he could neutralize the Louisville press on his own. Wise is far superior to any of Louisville’s point guards, and I don’t think any opponent can prepare for Wise’s quickness or his mind-boggling assortment of runners, floaters and whirling-dervish lay-ups.

Jordan Hill -- quite possibly the second-best offensive big man in college hoops after Blake Griffin -- is another ace in the hole for the Wildcats. Louisville only has one true interior player in freshman Samardo Samuels, who tends to get frustrated (which leads to foul trouble) when he squares off against an elite big man. If Hill can stay away from cheap fouls, this could be a dominant outing.

Chase Budinger has his hands full with Louisville’s outstanding wing players, Earl Clark and Terrence Williams. Both Clark and Williams are fantastic basketball players with tons of athleticism and versatility. The 6-foot-9 Clark is smooth, while the bulldog Williams is explosive. But if Budinger continues to attack the rim with patience and intelligence (few guys at this level move better without the ball), he could make both of them work so hard on defense that their offensive games start to suffer.

Lastly, Arizona’s major weakness is guarding the three-point line. In the Wildcats’ worst performances this season, they give up countless wide-open looks from beyond the arc. Anytime a team relies exclusively on a trapping zone defense to create turnovers and protect the “Big Three” from foul trouble, it will give up open jumpers. That’s just basketball -- pick your poison.

But Louisville isn’t the most consistent shooting team. The Cards knock down 36 percent of their attempts from deep -- not terrible, but not outstanding either. Their three best outside shooters -- Preston Knowles, Jerry Smith and Andre McGee -- have been dreadful so far this tournament. Without Williams taking his game to another level, who knows if the Cards would even be here right now?

THE NUMBER TO WATCH: 40.

Arizona’s chances today hinge on the number 40. Can Budinger, Hill and Wise each battle these high-powered Cardinals for 40 minutes? If fatigue or foul trouble cuts into those minutes, that could spell trouble for the Wildcats. They need to get everything they can out of the Big Three to hang with Louisville.

Forty is also key for Louisville. If the Cardinals hit more than 40 percent of their three-point attempts, they will likely run away with the victory. Those open jumpers will be there all day long if the Cards patiently run their offense.

OK, enough babble. It’s almost game time! Check back here frequently, as I’ll be updating this blog as often as possible.

PREGAME: ESPN.com has this feature where they plug in every statistic imaginable and run 10,000 simulations to judge the likely outcome of a game. Today’s simulation has Louisville winning with a 77.6 percent probability by a score of 74.5 to 65.2. Las Vegas has the Cardinals favored by 9.5. And 99 percent of the college basketball pundits have Louisville heading to the Elite Eight.

But this isn’t the first time the entire deck has been stacked against these Wildcats, right?

TIPOFF: Oh, happy day! The always-excited Gus Johnson will be calling the action for us today. Johnson isn’t for everybody, but I love his calls. He’s one of the few people who gets more excited about March Madness than I do. He sounds fired up just to be reading the starting lineups. Color commentator Len Elmore does a nice job breaking down the nuts and bolts while providing a calm counterpoint to Johnson’s

19:50: Earl Clark buries a long two from the corner as Louisville goes right into its press.

19:25: Jerry Smith is the recipient of a fast-break dunk after Louisville forces its first UA turnover. Great start for the Cardinals.

19:13: Now, that’s how you break the press. Budinger sneaks free on the sideline, hauls in the long outlet pass, gets a fast break lay-up and the old-fashioned three-point play.

19:00: Andre McGee nails a three from the top of the key. Looks like the Cards have brought their shooting strokes to Indianapolis.

18:14: Budinger knocks down his own jumper in the holes of Louisville’s zone.

18:00: Cats catch a break as Clark misses a couple of bunny lay-ups.

16:51: Jerry Smith knocks down a tough three from the wing. 10-5 Louisville. If these outside shots keep dropping, that means trouble for the Wildcats.

16:30: Wise goes into pest-mode and forces a tournover. Nice play.

15:46: After Hill nearly turns it over in a Louisville triple team, the Wildcats keep their composure and eventually work the ball to Budinger, who converts a nice lefty lay-up. He’s scored all seven of Arizona’s points. 10-7 Louisville.

MEDIA TIMEOUT: It’s such a shame that this Syracuse/Oklahoma game is going to be on at the same time. That Orange zone versus the country’s best player (Blake Griffin) is just a fascinating match-up.

14:55: Wise and Hill misread each other, leading to a Wildcat turnover.

14:47: Samuels muscles in a lay-up. On the other end, he fiercely rejects Fogg’s lay-up attempt.

14:33: Hill gets stripped for UA’s third turnover. Hill is all out of sorts right now.

14:09: Hill gets the ball at the free-throw line and smartly takes Samuels off the dribble to draw a foul on the freshman.

14:05: OK, Hill is back. He takes that inbounds pass and goes up with the soft touch from in close.

13:46: Terrence Williams -- the most versatile guy on the floor -- knocks down a three.

13:37: Arizona’s worst nightmare -- Louisville’s Edgar Sosa force a backcourt turnover after Williams’ three, leading to a quick lay-up. It’s 17-9 Louisville, just like that.

12:45: Fogg knocks down a HUGE three from the corner. Boy, did the Wildcats need that one to drop.

12:11: Wise with the travel. Turnover No. 5 already for the Wildcats.

11:59: Terrence Jennings rips that rebound away from Jamelle Horne and heads to the line for his trouble. Here’s where things could get dicey. Louisville is rotating in fresh guys, while Arizona has to simply weather the storm. Jennings gets one of two to drop. Here’s one of Louisville’s biggest weaknesses -- free-throw shooting -- 63.8 percent as a team. If Arizona can keep it close, Louisville is more than capable of blowing it at the line.

11:10: Smith executes a perfect pump fake on Zane Johnson and drives past him for the emphatic slam.

10:45: Wise dribbles his way through the press, hands it off to Hill, who gets mugged on that lay-up attempt, but nothing gets called.

10:31: Wise breaks free again and draws the foul call on that hard take to the hoop. Those two free throws -- 26 straight makes, by the way -- are Wise’s first points. 20-14 Louisville.

10:05: Jennings -- who has been an absolute monster since he entered the game -- jumps over Budinger for that offensive rebound and slam. Even if I had my TV muted, I would’ve been able to hear that scream.

9:55: Just as Len Elmore praises Chase Budinger’s ball handling, he promptly turns it over.

9:10: Hill gets a wide-open 10-foot jumper in the lane but back-rims it. He absolutely has to knock that shot down if Arizona hopes to keep this game close.

8:46: Wise with an aggressive dribble drive leads to another Louisville foul. He missed a free throw?!?! Huh?!?! That one wasn’t even close. He starts a new streak with the second foul shot. 22-15 Louisville.

8:19: Jennings shakes free for yet another slam. The Cardinals are making it look easy on the offensive end.

8:07: The Wildcats flawlessly break that press, leading to a breakout Budinger slam.

7:53: Clark hit’s a transition jumper. This game is moving at a torrid pace -- just the way Louisville wants it.

7:39: Wise misses the wild lay-up attempt and Hill picks up the foul trying to grab that rebound. It’s all Louisville right now. The Cardinals have forced six UA turnovers and they’re hitting 52 percent from the field to take this 26-17 lead.

7:11: Sosa knocks down a wide-open three from the wing. He’s really struggled from that range for Louisville (29.7 percent), but that shot was pure.

6:47: Budinger is doing all he can to keep Arizona in this. That midrange jumper gives him 11 points on 5-6 shooting.

6:20: Clark makes a remarkably strong move, powering the ball through Hill and getting the lay-up to fall while drawing Hill’s second foul. The freebie gives Louisville a 32-19 advantage.

6:10: Wise bricks that long contested three. Not a good shot, especially that early in the shot clock.

6:02: Sosa penetrates the Wildcat defense and finds Samuels for a big dunk. Sosa hasn’t played this well since he was a high school phenom in New York. Pennell quickly calls for time. Can the Wildcats stop the bleeding?

5:25: Samuels makes a strong move to the middle of the lane, but takes too many steps. Arizona needs to get something -- anything -- going.

5:07: Budinger converts the finger roll, but Samuels does an outstanding job establishing position and absorbs the charge.

4:49: Fendi Onobun leaps as high as he can to block Samuels’ shot, but that ball-fake sent Fendi tumbling to the court. Yikes.

4:23: Horne back-rims an open three (again, way too early in the shot clock), and Hill is lucky not to pick up another foul as he battles Terrence Williams for that rebound. Williams makes a really athletic play to save it on the sideline. Louisville back at the free-throw line. Two more FT’s gives the Cards a 38-19 lead.

3:53: Hill rims out a jumper at the elbow, but gets his own rebound and hustles in for a lay-up.

3:29: Samuels looked to dribble it off the end line, but he powers the ball up for another lay-up and draws the foul. It’s getting ugly, Wildcat fans. Samuels gets the shooters roll -- 41-21 Louisville.

2:50: Earl Clark goes up high for yet another rebound-and-foul. CBS flashes a graphic of the “Big Three,” which had to be depressing for all of Southern Arizona to see. Pennell has decided to work Alex Jacobson into the game -- uh oh.

2:39: Budinger buries a three. Glad he came to play today. It’s too bad he isn’t getting much help.

2:05: Wise finally knocks down a shot -- an open three after a broken play (Fogg nearly turned it over in the backcourt). It’s 43-27 Cards.

1:06: Smith easily knocks down a wiiiide-open three after working their offense to perfection. Louisville is making it look too easy.

0:55: Wise works his way to the foul stripe again and gets one of two. Now, it’s mental. Wise never misses two free throws in the first half. He’s clearly frustrated.

0:35: Smith buries a long three (his third of the game). Everything is going Louisville’s way. It’s a blowout -- no nice way to put it.

0:02: Louisville almost tacked on another bucket, but offensive basket interference waves that one off.

HALFTIME: 49-28 at the Louisville Basketball Clinic.

Really, what is there to say about this? Louisville is a much, MUCH better basketball team. The Cardinals are far more athletic, far more talented, far more deep.

Every rationalization I had for Arizona making this a game? Gone. Nic Wise is clearly flustered by the relentless Louisville pressure. Jordan Hill has been unable to take advantage of Samardo Samuels’ youth. Louisville is red-hot from three-point range (6-15, 40 percent -- the key number I listed at the top). But Arizona isn’t even getting a hand in Louisville’s face on most of these shots. Regardless, this is as good as a basketball team can play. Louisville is breathtakingly good.

Can Arizona make this a game? Well, Wise will need to heat up in a hurry. That’s the first order of business. But Arizona needs to play smarter. They’re getting duped into taking bad shots early in the shot clock and playing into Louisville’s frantic pace. The first 20 minutes went as badly as it could’ve for the Wildcats. I don’t want to sound like a wet blanket, but unless Louisville suffers a total meltdown, it’s hard to envision the Wildcats clawing their way back into this game.

If it wasn’t for the scorching-hot Chase Budinger (14 points, 6-8 shooting), this would be even more embarrassing. The rest of Arizona’s roster is 4-18 from the floor thus far. I looked at the math again to make sure that wasn’t a typo, but that’s the real number. Just awful.

Louisville is getting its points from all over the place. The Cards have played 10 guys so far, and all of them have contributed. Jerry Smith has been hot this first half (13 points, 3-4 from three), but everyone is contributing. Terrence Williams might’ve been quiet in the points column (just five, compared to the 18 he’s averaging in the tourney), but he’s doing everything right, as is Earl Clark and Samardo Samuels. Even Terrence Jennings -- Louisville’s backup big man -- has out-played Hill.

Just total domination. Let’s hope the second half gets a little more competitive.

Of course, last night’s Memphis/Missouri game appeared over when Mizzou took a 24-point lead in the second half. But Memphis’ Tyreke Evans caught fire and made it a ballgame. Can Budinger (or Wise, or Hill) make that happen this afternoon? We shall see.

SECOND HALF 19:41: Budinger picks up where he left off, knocking down an open three from the top of the key after Louisville’s defense collapsed on Budinger.

19:00: Clark knocks down an all-too-easy three from the corner. That has be there all day long, and Louisville is making them pay.

18:27: Hill has missed his first two shot attempts in this second half by a mile. That last shot -- a short turnaround he usually makes -- barely grazed the front of the rim. He’s 2-7 from the floor right now.

17:41: Budinger gets raked across the arm when he went up for that jumper at the foul line, but he makes it anyway -- no call. It almost looks like he banked that one in on purpose.

17:18: Williams buries that jumper with ease. He makes things look very, well, casual isn’t the right word. He just looks like he’s playing a pick-up game with his buddies at the YMCA.

16:17: Williams pulled down that rebound and went behind his back before he hit the ground, so the ball wouldn’t get poked away. I’ve never seen anything like that before. Wow! He kick-starts the break, which leads to Clark burying an open three in the corner. Timeout Wildcats. 60-33 Louisville. Where’s the mercy rule?

15:19: Hill looks to set up that jump hook of his, but walks. Arizona’s 10th turnover.

14:53: Budinger picks up a foul on a hard take to the hoop. Louisville would be winning by 46 without Budinger’s performance. He has 20 of Arizona’s 34 points today.

14:19: Louisville, just for fun, flawlessly executes a fast break. Clark leaves it for Sosa, who gets a lefty lay-up to fall and the foul. Sosa finds the closest camera and flashes a smile. It’s all fun and games for the Cardinals right now. 63-34 Louisville. Arizona has six points so far this half.

14:00: Jennings with a lay-up on a nice pass from Williams. It’s an avalanche.

13:41: Another Hill turnover leads to a Sosa lay-up. Arizona is completely, totally drained. Mentally, physically, emotionally, you name it. These next 13 minutes can’t tick by fast enough for those guys on the court.

13:27: Two Hill free throws temporarily stop the Louisville onslaught.

12:52: Sosa with a little dipsy-do lay-up. Where did this performance come from? He was a star freshman two years ago, but he’s Louisville’s back-up point guard as a junior. Today, he looks like an All-American.

12:06: Williams buries a three and screams like some sort of an idiot. We get it, you’re good. Let’s exhibit a little class, Williams, huh?

11:58: A Wise lay-up cuts the Louisville lead to 32. It’s still an 11-possession game. 70-42 Louisville.

11:21: Wise finally gets rolling. Another aggressive lay-up for the 5-foot-8 junior.

10:59: Nobody is within four feet of Williams when he dunked that one through.

10:47: Wise isn’t going to go away quietly. He draws a foul on another aggressive take to the bucket.

10:27: Jerry Smith buries his fourth three, giving Louisville a 77-42 advantage. The Cardinals are purely in “let’s send Kansas and Michigan State a message” mode. They haven’t let up at all.

10:04: A three from Wise keeps Arizona fans moderately engaged.

9:14: Samuels gets the lay-up-and-one, but that’s not the story on that play. After Williams ripped down an impressive rebound, he made a jaw-dropping one-handed bounce pass from half court right on the money to Clark, but Clark flubbed the lay-up. I think Clark was surprised by how good that pass was. In other news, an exhausted Hill checks out for a few minutes. For some reason, Hill decided to dip his hands in concrete before the game tonight.

8:55: Horne tallies his first made shot of the afternoon. Yeah, it’s been that kind of day.

7:55: There ya go, Jordan. That slick baseline jumper falls through, giving him eight points. I figured Hill would’ve hit the eight-point mark early in the first half.

6:50: Samuels hauls in an offensive rebound and makes an excellent interior pass to Clark for the hoop. I’m very impressed with this team’s unselfishness and its continued defensive intensity. Louisville is playing like it’s a tie game.

6:10: Wise finds Fendi Onobun cutting to the hoop for his first bucket. It’s nice to see the senior get a hoop in what is sure to be his final basketball game. I’d love it if the rumors were true and he tries his hand at football. He’s such a phenomenal athlete.

5:40: Williams knocks down a three, adding to his NBA draft highlight reel.

5:22: Hill with a jumper, putting him in double digits. He scored in double digits in every game except one this season -- Jan. 8 against Oregon, when he scored 9 in a 67-52 win.

4:25: That took a while (roughly four offensive rebounds), but Hill finally gets the short-range shot to go. 90-55 Louisville.

3:42: Zane Johnson nails a three, but it’s too little, WAY too late.

2:48: That whole sequence summed up Arizona’s night. Four missed shots on Arizona’s end, leading to a Louisville three from the corner on the other end. We’re just counting down the seconds now.

2:09: Jared Swopshire throws down an alley-oop. The names change, but the results are the same.

1:22: We’re in the “let’s get everyone some playing time” portion. David Bagga and Sahuarita’s own D.J. Shumpert are out there right now. No offense to either of those guys, but no Arizona fan wanted to see them get into the game under this circumstance.

0:45: Bagga buries a three! Nice! It’s nothing remotely like that three he nailed in his McKale Center finale against Stanford, but it’s still good to see the walk-on senior get on the scoreboard in a Sweet 16 game.

0:39: Swopshire’s dunk puts Louisville over 100.

FINAL: 103-64 Louisville. Frankly, it wasn’t that close.

POSTGAME: Well, that was ugly.

Every doubt that people held about this Arizona team manifested itself today against one of the best college hoops teams in the nation. Louisville simply out-gunned the Wildcats from the opening tip. This was the most dominant performance by any team in the tournament, considering the circumstances and Arizona’s talent level. Louisville has served notice to everyone else still alive in this tournament -- it is the team to beat. Wow.

There wasn’t a single flaw in anything Louisville did today. The Cardinals shot the lights out (57.6 percent, 9-10 from the line, 14-29 from three) and dismantled Arizona’s offensive efforts with their relentless pressure defense. Wise and Hill padded their point totals late to give them 14 each, but neither of them were a factor when the game was still close. Had it not been for Chase Budinger’s 22 points on 9-15 shooting, this would’ve been an even bigger fiasco. Arizona’s numbers, minus Budinger: 15-48, 42 points.

Earl Clark, Terrence Williams, Samardo Samuels, Jerry Smith and Edgar Sosa each scored in double figures. The Cardinals also had 29 assists on 38 made baskets -- just an outstanding stat. Louisville waits to face either Kansas or Michigan State.

As for the Wildcats, they will return to Tucson with their heads held high, despite the lopsided defeat. They made it to a point in the tournament virtually nobody believed would happen, and they restored faith in this basketball program. This disastrous loss will leave a bitter taste in fans’ mouths, but that shouldn’t change the optimism everyone around here felt these past couple weeks. This was a fun team too root for. Fendi Onobun said he had never played on a team this close, and I’ve never covered a team that connected with its fans on such a deep level.

One thing is for sure -- Russ Pennell will wake up tomorrow with about three dozen job offers waiting for him.

In Sunday’s paper, we’ll have a bit of a season recap, as well as a “what’s next?” segment on UA basketball. Be sure to check the March Madness Blog for your college hoops fix.

The UA basketball season might be over, but the storylines, intrigue and drama are just beginning. Stay tuned.