Guest Comment: Election effects — a prediction

After listening — for what seems like forever — to political campaign promises, we approach Election Day. Many pundits have already declared Barack Obama the winner. Whether I like that or not (I don’t), I offer my analysis of what will happen if and when he is inaugurated, based on campaign statements and other releases by Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Reid.

Within six months

Energy: Congress will pass a bill and Obama will sign it, reinstating the ban on off-shore drilling and providing billions of dollars (from somewhere) for federal research grants on alternative energy.

Immigration: Any permanent Border Patrol checkpoint on Interstate 19 will be ordered discontinued, and border fence funds will be withdrawn or drastically cut. The amnesty legislation will probably take place after the first six months.

Labor Relations: As demanded by many unions and backed by their campaign contributions, the secret ballot for union bargaining unit elections will be abolished, allowing representation by signature cards alone.

Economy/Financial Crisis: Congress will enact, and Obama will sign, a several billion dollar additional stimulus package. New regulations will be proposed by Senator Dodd and Congressman Frank just enough to not damage their relationship with finance titans, but may fail because many will recognize the fallacy. (The president will announce a temporary hold on his trillion dollar campaign promise — can’t find the extra money.)

Taxes: An attempt will be made to retroactively change the tax code effective for 2008, changing capital gains and other tax rates. This will include, also, the promised tax cut (actually refund check) for those who pay only FICA, etc, and not income tax.

“Fairness Doctrine:” An attempt will be made — maybe successful — to put in effect some control of time on content on media, especially talk radio and cable TV, to center the success of more conservative content compared to more liberal content.

(Note: All of the above have been, and will be, supported by present Arizona Democrat Congress persons — notably including Grijalva and Giffords.)

Within 12 to 18 months

Trade Policy: An attempt will be made to re-negotiate NAFTA agreements with Canada and Mexico. Also, based on organized labor demands and contributions, and attempt will be made to re-negotiate with Colombia, the present agreement being blocked in the Senate. Colombia will refuse, damaging our relationship and possibly causing their government’s disruption.

Iraq/Afghanistan: Campaign statements and promises have shifted so much that little will occur during the first six months, since it will be recognized that promises were not based on reality. Hopefully, references to do things in Pakistan will not be carried out.

Foreign Affairs: We will let Joe Biden’s prediction of a challenge handle this one and won’t try to guess which one — too many possibilities.

Hard to predict Israel-Palestinian until the Israeli election in February, with either their current government or Netanyahu meaning a major difference. Obama will have to decide which of his directions to go.

Federal Court/Supreme Court Appointments: Big issue, as Obama will reach for the most liberal appointees. Much will depend on how close to 60 senators the Democrats get.

That’s enough for now. I hope I don’t have to find out, but will be watching. If McCain wins, I may do a new list.

Green Valley resident Glenn Lundell is a member of the Green Valley Community Coordinating Council. Mr. Lundell moved to Green Valley from Anchorage, Alaska, where he was a human resources consultant. The views expressed are the writer’s not necessarily those of this newspaper.