SIZING UP THE COMPETITION

How the Wildcats stack up against their Pac-10 foes

Optimism regarding University of Arizona football tends to peak before the season-opening kickoff.

For each of the last five years, Wildcat fans watch their expectations rise throughout the summer, only to see them come crashing back to earth after a disappointing start.

Why will this year be any different?

Last year’s slate started with a brutal trip to Provo, Utah to battle a formidable BYU squad. This year, the Wildcats start out with back-to-back home games against Idaho and Toledo — two programs not likely to receive much in the way of top-25 attention.

In fact, ESPN.com’s Ivan Maisel says UA’s schedule is so easy, a 6-0 start to the season is possible.

Second, the offense returns every key skill-position player and appears poised to shatter nearly every Arizona scoring record on the books.

Third — and perhaps most importantly — the Pac-10 conference might not be quite as formidable as in years past.

Of course, USC will spend much of the season in the national-title hunt and Arizona State could perhaps challenge the mighty Trojans for Pac-10 supremacy.

After that, it’s anyone’s guess how the rest of the conference will perform.

Whether it’s key departures or offseason injuries to crucial contributors, uncertainty grips many of Arizona’s left-coast competitors.

How will it play out this fall? Here’s a quick glimpse at each Pac-10 squad, in order of predicted finish.

Top of the heap

USC (Last season: 11-2, 7-2).

To the surprise of nobody who follows college football, the Trojans begin 2008 ranked third by The Associated Press and second by the coaches. Pete Carroll’s program is the closest thing to a dynasty Pac-10 fans have seen since John Wooden patrolled the sidelines during UCLA’s hoops heyday.

Mark Sanchez takes over behind center for John David Booty, but a dislocated kneecap has kept him off the field for most of the fall practice session. Third-year sophomore Mitch Mustain will take over if Sanchez isn’t ready for the season opener on Aug. 30 at Virginia, but Sanchez recently said he doesn’t expect to miss any playing time.

While Sanchez’s health is improving, explosive young tailback Joe McKnight has missed practice time due to a skin irritation and, most recently, to a hyperextended right elbow.

Despite all of the uncertainty on offense, the defense — led by one of the fastest linebacking groups in the nation — should be the Pac-10’s most fearsome unit.

Expect the Trojans to withstand the offensive adversity and ride its defense to yet another Pac-10 crown.

Arizona State (Last season: 10-3, 7-2).

This season’s chic pick to upset USC, the Sun Devils return cocky gunslinger Rudy Carpenter and a talented pair of receivers (Mike Jones and Chris McGaha) to a squad that tied the Trojans in conference play.

Dennis Erickson has quickly turned Arizona State into a formidable foe and a dark-horse BCS contender. If the Sun Devils can upset No. 1 Georgia Sept. 20 in Tempe, expect to see the Sun Devils’ profile skyrocket nationally.

Lou Groza award winner Thomas Weber returns at Arizona State’s secret weapon. He missed only one field-goal attempt as a freshman.

If the Sun Devils can replace some key graduates on defense, this could be a scary team. However, don’t expect the Trojans to fall to second place just yet.

The “maybe if” teams

California (Last season: 7-6. 3-6).

The Golden Bears were on the cusp of taking over the No. 1 spot in the polls last season before losing six of their final seven games.

While it will be a tall task to psychologically recover from such an epic collapse, Jeff Tedford’s teams typically feature a great deal of offensive firepower.

Despite losing big-play wideouts DeSean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins and Robert Jordan to the NFL, Cal fans expect big things from Florida transfer Nyan Boateng.

Senior Nate Longshore will look to bounce back from a disappointing second half of 2007 to reclaim his perch among the top Pac-10 signal-callers.

Tailback Jahvid Best missed a chunk of the spring with a bruised hip, but his 7.6 yards per carry average as a freshman has NFL scouts salivating.

The question, as always, is whether or not Cal can stop anyone. They have excellent speed and experience in the linebacking corps, with Zach Follett anchoring the unit. But it might take some time for the defense to acclimate itself to a 3-4 look, as opposed to the 4-3 sets it used to run.

Don’t expect Cal to take such a massive slide in the second half of this season, but it is still a step behind USC and Arizona State until its young talent can prove itself.

Oregon (Last season: 9-4, 5-4).

As last season proved, this team was lost without Heisman-trophy candidate Dennis Dixon.

Now that Dixon is taking snaps for the Pittsburgh Steelers, it’s up to exciting sophomore Nate Costa to fill his cleats. He spent much of last season sidelined with a knee injury, but will likely start the season opener against Washington.

Costa’s mobility and accuracy is an ideal fit for Mike Bellotti’s spread offense, but he will not have a security blanket quite like NFL first-rounder Jonathan Stewart.

Four backs, led by senior Jeremiah Johnson, will vie for time at tailback.

The Ducks do return a surprisingly stout defense — including defensive end Nick Reed — so look for Bellotti to rely on that side of the ball while his young offense gets its feet wet.

Oregon State (Last season: 9-4, 6-3).

Nobody knows quite how Mike Riley’s teams do it, but the Beavers tend to sneak up on everyone in the Pac-10 and finish with a head of steam toward a nice bowl game.

Last season, Oregon State survived some abhorrent quarterback play to finish third in the Pac-10.

Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao will battle for starting quarterback duties. Don’t be surprised if both see substantial playing time this season.

The Beavers lose talented tailback Yvenson Bernard, but electric redshirt freshman Ryan McCants is itching for the opportunity to show folks what he can do.

Former standout wide receiver Sammie Stroughter should recover from bouts of depression and a lacerated kidney that derailed what looked to be a promising 2007 campaign. He has the skills to challenge for an All-Pac-10 spot.

Last year’s defense led the nation, allowing only 70 yards per game on the ground. Will the seven new starters (four linemen, three linebackers) be able to match that production?

If they can, the Beavers could post another surprising season. If not, expect a long winter in Corvallis.

UCLA (Last season: 6-7, 5-4).

Rick Neuheisel’s return to UCLA got off to a rough start with starting quarterback Ben Olson needing surgery on his right foot. Redshirt junior Kevin Craft will start in his place.

In addition, tailback Christian Ramirez won’t play for the Bruins this season because he didn’t meet NCAA eligibility requirements.

This team might struggle to score points, but a strong special teams unit and some speed on defense should help carry UCLA through its injury woes.

Neuheisel is expected to help renew the Los Angeles rivalry with USC, but it might take a couple of years before the Bruins can hope to battle the Trojans for L.A. superiority.

A year away

Washington (Last season: 4-9, 2-7).

It’s hard to believe that a quarterback is the Pac-10’s leading returning rusher, but Washington’s Jake Locker is just such an athlete.

Locker rushed for 986 yards — a Pac-10 QB record — as a freshman, and he might be the most physically gifted athlete in the conference.

On the downside, he completed a meager 47 percent of his passes and threw more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (14).

It will be up to Locker to improve on those ghastly passing numbers in order for Ty Willingham to keep his job in Seattle. The rest of the squad has major holes on the offensive line, which might end up putting too much of a strain on Locker’s ability to run in the open field.

Stanford (Last season: 4-8, 3-6).

Even though Jim Harbaugh’s squad won only four games, two of the wins were among the biggest in the program’s recent history.

The Cardinal took down USC 24-23 in one of the all-time biggest Pac-10 upsets, then follwed up with a 20-13 win over rival Cal in the Big Game.

So is Stanford the scrappy team that pulled off those miraculous upsets, or the squad that was outscored 141-51 in its first three Pac-10 games.

Early indications show somewhere in between.

There’s no question that this program is on its way out of the cellar, but uncertainty at quarterback and on special teams will likely keep this team below the .500 mark for at least one more season.

Washington State (Last season: 5-7, 3-6).

Paul Wuff takes over the Cougars’ program after an uninspiring stretch that has seen Washington State win 20 games in the last four seasons.

Productive quarterback Alex Brink departs, leaving veteran backup Gary Rogers in charge. Rogers has attempted a meager 52 passes during the past three seasons.

He won’t get much help from a weak running-back corps, but All-Pac-10 wideout Brandon Gibson should provide Rogers with an excellent target. Gibson was the conference’s most productive wideout not named Mike Thomas last season.

Outside of Gibson, however, there appears to be a great deal of gaps throughout this roster. It will be a struggle to stay out of last place in Pullman, Wash.

What does this mean for the Wildcats?

If everything falls into place, this squad could conceivably challenge Cal and Oregon for third place in the Pac-10.

It might be common for Wildcat fans to exhibit inflated expectations in August, but this could very well be the year that those hopes pay off.

nprevenas@gvnews.com | 547-9747