Wildcat Notebook: Who will draft Jerryd Bayless?

In about 24 hours, Jerryd Bayless will realize a life-long dream.

The former Arizona star will hear David Stern call his name. He’ll celebrate with his family and friends. He’ll wave to the Madison Square Garden crowd as he approaches the NBA commissioner.

As he nears the stage, someone will hand him his first official NBA cap.

What team’s logo will be on that cap? That is where things get interesting.

For weeks, the vast majority of the web’s mock drafts had Bayless locked in at No. 4 to the Seattle SuperSonics.

It’s widely assumed that Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley will be the first two names called during tomorrow’s NBA draft (ESPN, 4:30-9 p.m.).

After that, it’s anyone’s guess.

Minnesota picks third, and most draft prognosticators have them taking USC’s O.J. Mayo, even though their two most recent lottery picks have been Randy Foye and Rashad McCants — athletic combo guards in the same mold as Mayo.

There are a handful of teams looking to trade up into that No. 3 spot, with either Mayo or Bayless as the potential target.

Aran Smith, President of NBADraft.net, believes that Bayless is the third-best prospect available in this year’s draft, but might not necessarily be taken in the top five.

Seattle general manager Sam Presti was impressed by Bayless’ athleticism and versatility at last month’s Orlando pre-draft camp, but may not be looking for a scoring combo guard like Bayless.

If Bayless falls past Seattle at No. 4, it will be hard to predict where the former Wildcat ends up.

Rumors like this are common every year around this time, but it still has some NBA experts wondering if Bayless’ once-hot stock is slipping at the worst possible time.

“I wouldn’t stay his stock is slipping,” Smith said. “I just think the Sonics are exploring all options and may lean toward taking a big man such as [Stanford’s Brook] Lopez if they keep the pick.”

Smith added that the Sonics are fielding a number of trade offers for the pick and have also become enamored with UCLA’s Russell Westbrook.

The sophomore guard saw his stock rise due to his lock-down defensive ability and elite athleticism. He doesn’t possess nearly the offensive polish that Bayless does, but he’s slightly bigger and a much more consistent defender.

Seattle might consider trading out of the No. 4 spot, while targeting Westbrook or perhaps D.J. Augustin in the second half of the lottery.

If the Timberwolves and Sonics pass on Bayless, it’s unlikely that the Memphis Grizzlies at No. 5 would select him. Between Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry and Javaris Crittenton, the Grizzlies have more guards than they know what to do with.

In addition, Memphis general manager Chris Wallace might be under orders to slash payroll, so the team might dangle the No. 5 pick to any interested team who might pick up a lousy long-term contract.

If he is still on the board, Bayless is a distinct possibility at No. 6 to the New York Knicks. Former Phoenix Suns’ coach Mike D’Antoni loves quick, athletic guards and might use Bayless the way he used Leandro Barbosa.

However, the Knicks are also strongly considering Westbrook or sharp-shooting Italian forward Danilo Gallinari at their spot.

The Los Angeles Clippers pick at No. 7, and Smith said there is no way Bayless falls below that spot — even though yesterday’s interactive mock draft on ESPN.com between popular columnist Bill Simmons and NBA draft reporter Chad Ford had Bayless slippling all the way to the Indiana Pacers at No. 11.

“I can’t see Bayless slipping past No. 7,” Smith said. “He’s just too talented.”

The Clippers are desperate for any back-court scoring help, and Bayless fits the bill. However, the Clippers have a terrible track record in the draft.

“I’m not sure the Clippers is a great place for young players to develop,” Smith said. “Although, Bayless would probably be all right there.”

He added that he believes Bayless is one of the few players in this draft that won’t need a great situation in order to succeed.

But what team features the personnel and the style of play that will allow Bayless to flourish?

“The Sonics would be a team that would allow Bayless to play his brand of basketball,” Smith said. “It doesn’t appear as if they want a combo, but it could all be a bunch of posturing in order to throw the other teams off.”

Yes, lying, deceiving and manipulating is all part of what makes the NBA draft so compelling.

If Bayless is picked at No. 4, he will make a guaranteed $2,911,400 in his first season ($16.7 million over five years). At No. 7, that number drops to $2,186,000 ($12.5 million, five years).

First-round draft picks get two years guaranteed, two team-option years and a fifth year qualifying offer.

So no matter where he goes, Bayless will be the latest in a long line of former Wildcats to cash in on draft night.

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