Tough challenges await Mitchell, Giffords

TEMPE—After working in Washington, D.C. during the week, U.S. Rep. Harry Mitchell is out on a Saturday morning, delivering a charge as volunteers supporting Democratic candidates head out to knock on doors.

“What you all represent is change,” he says.

Over the next two hours, Mitchell shakes dozens of hands before heading to an afternoon meeting with members his advisory council on veterans’ issues. The meeting runs an hour late, and he isn’t able to catch any of a Phoenix Suns playoff game as he heads to a Starbucks for an interview.

“It’s always busy,” Mitchell says. “Every night when I come home it’s busy, and come September it will be very busy.”

September is when one of several Republican candidates will be chosen to try to unseat Mitchell, a first-term Democrat representing a congressional district where at last report Republicans outnumbered members of his party by a wide margin.

Republicans, who lost Congressional District 5, covering much of the East Valley, when Mitchell ousted six-term incumbent Rep. J.D. Hayworth, see the seat as one they can win back in the fall. Four Republicans so far are vying to oppose Mitchell in the general election.

“I will have to say that it’s going to be very difficult. I know it’s going to be hard, it’s going to take a lot of work,” Mitchell said. “But I’m going to win.”

Barbara Norrander, a political science professor at the University of Arizona, said that freshman politicians are always at risk, though she said incumbents have an edge.

“The first re-election campaign is always considered the most crucial because they’ve only been in office for two years and they’re seen as perhaps more vulnerable than a long-term incumbent,” Norrander said.

The GOP also is optimistic about the chances of winning back southern Arizona’s Congressional District 8, where first-term Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords replaced longtime Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe. As of 2006, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in that district, which covers sections of Pima and Cochise counties as slivers of Pinal and Santa Cruz counties, but by narrower margin than in Mitchell’s district.

Giffords in particular faces a well-known and well-funded opponent in Arizona Senate President Tim Bee, who had raised $750,000 to Giffords’ $1.9 million since January 2007, according to reports filed with the Federal Elections Commission.

“Because Gabby Giffords and Harry Mitchell vote with (House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi almost 100 percent of the time, they make themselves easy targets,” said Betsy Andres, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Yoni Cohen, western regional press secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said both Mitchell and Giffords have the edge.

“The climate is favorable for us,” Cohen said. “I think people are kind of ready for stronger majorities in the House.”

David Wasserman, a House analyst for The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan publication that analyzes elections and trends nationally, said Mitchell’s and Giffords’ races are close but that both incumbents have early leads.

Wasserman said Mitchell’s chief advantages are money and the effort an expense a GOP challenger faces to get through the primary. He said Giffords’ political profile fits her district, which is moderate.

Mitchell had raised $1.3 million, more than all of his announced Republican opponents combined. His closest competitors are former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, who had raised nearly $700,000, and former lobbyist Jim Ogsbury, with $425,000. Laura Knaperek, a former state representative, and state Rep. Mark Anderson, had raised $100,000 and $55,000, respectively.

Fred Solop, director of the Social Research Laboratory at Northern Arizona University, said that Mitchell’s race could be a toss-up because November is so far off.

“A lot of things could happen both in the national scene and local scene that could affect Harry Mitchell’s chances one way or the other,” Solop said. “There’s always what we call the X factor, or the unknown factor, and so the tide could turn in one direction or the other.”

Cronkite News Service is an intensive professional experience for advanced print and broadcast students in Arizona State University’s Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication.