Has Arizona earned another tourney berth?

“Selection Sunday” tends to be a celebratory day in Southern Arizona.

Since 1985, the Arizona Wildcats have elminated the guesswork typically associated with “Selection Sunday,” establishing themselves as the nation’s most consistent tournament participant.

The Wildcats haven’t missed a “Big Dance” in 23 years, the nation’s longest-active streak.

However, an unfamiliar sense of apprehension grips local basketball fans today, as the Wildcats (19-14, 8-10 Pac-10) find themselves on the tournament bubble and at the mercy of the selection committee.

At this point, the distractions, injuries and excuses that have clogged Arizona’s basketball discourse this season fade into background noise, as every player, coach, media member and fan will glue themselves to CBS at 3 p.m. to find out whether the Wildcats made the field of 65.

Most pundits have Arizona making the field, with ESPN.com’s resident “Bracketologist” Joe Lunardi listing the Wildcats as a No. 11 seed in the East bracket.

Gary Parrish at CBS.sportsline.com also has Arizona in the tournament, as does Brad Evans at Yahoo.com.

However, none of these experts feel 100 percent safe that the Wildcats possess the necessary credentials to blow away the selection committee and lock up one of the precious at-large bids.

The question remains. Has Arizona done enough this season to deserve yet another appearance in the NCAA Tournament?

The case in favor

The Wildcats’ candidacy comes down to three simple words: Strength of schedule.

Only No. 4 Tennessee has played a tougher slate, with Arizona’s opponents combining to win 62.5 percent of their contests, helping boost the squad’s RPI to 38, despite its modest win total.

Since Lute Olson took over the program 1983, he has made sure the Wildcats play the toughest schedule possible, year in and year out.

The selection committee frowns upon teams who schedule a handful of hapless opponents. This has never been a problem in Arizona.

Olson’s scheduling preference has forced the entire Pac-10 conference to follow his lead, which has resulted in one of the most competitive seasons in Pac-10 history.

Every squad outside of Oregon State entered conference play with a record better than .500.

Only the Big East can rival the Pac-10’s overall competitiveness.

In addition, Arizona’s late-season slide could partially be attributed to injuries to Nic Wise and Bret Brielmaier. With Wise and Jerryd Bayless (who missed four games with a knee injury of his own) in the lineup, the Wildcats boast a 15-6 record.

In the four games since Wise has returned from late-season knee surgery, the 5-9 point guard has averaged 13.3 points and 6.8 assists, helping spark an Arizona offensive attack that had become stagnant and predictable.

When the Wildcats are firing on all cylinders, few squads can match their offensive firepower.

Between the strength of schedule and this team’s ceiling when it has its full roster available, few of these so-called bubble teams have a stronger case for inclusion than the Arizona Wildcats.

The case against

Of course, the most important factor toward guaranteeing a spot among the chosen 65 has nothing to do with computer forumlas or opponent winning percentage.

At some point, a team has to actually win basketball games.

During the past month, Arizona has posted a meager 3-6 record, but that mark is slightly deceiving.

Two of those victories came against the winless Oregon State Beavers, so those can hardly be used as evidence to boost the Wildcats’ tournament credentials.

Only a gritty road win at Washington State can be considered a legitimate victory.

Despite the boost Wise provided offensively, the Wildcats lost must-win games at Oregon and against Stanford in the Pac-10 Tournament quarterfinals.

No Pac-10 team has ever made the tournament with a losing conference record. Arizona’s 8-10 mark is the team’s worst conference showing since Olson’s first season in 1983-84 — the last time Arizona didn’t make the tournament.

While the Wildcats have proven that they have what it takes to hang with elite teams like UCLA and Stanford, they have yet to prove that they can pull out a tight game in the closing seconds.

This team has far too many explosive offensive options to struggle so mightily in end-of-game scenarios.

The final verdict

It looks like Arizona will likely squeak into the tournament with one of the last at-large invitations, but that doesn’t mean anyone will rest easy this “Selection Sunday.”

Barely making the tournament is not a good enough goal for a region accustomed to excellence.

Of course, the answers provided by today’s selection process will only create more questions.

If this squad does, in fact, make the field, can it improve upon last year’s first-round exit?

What does this mean for Kevin O’Neill’s future with the program? Will Bayless and Budinger stick around for another season?

And, most importantly, how will Southern Arizona’s basketball fans handle all of this tension and uncertainty?

Visit www.gvnews.com to print off a blank NCAA Tournament bracket, and watch CBS at 3 p.m. today to find out which teams made the field of 65.

nprevenas@gvnews.com | 547-9747