The Big Story: Arizona parties dictate delegate impact

PHOENIX—It’s all or nothing for Arizona Republicans when they go to the polls Tuesday to pick a favorite in the state’s presidential primary.

The Republican candidate getting the most votes statewide is entitled to first-ballot support from all 53 of the state’s delegates to the party’s national convention.

Arizona Democrats, on the other hand, will divide the spoils, using a multitiered system that will allot convention delegates to candidates proportionally according to their support statewide and in each of the eight congressional districts.

While neither party changed its basic system for this year’s election, each party’s setup in Arizona has the potential to significantly help at least one of the major 2008 contenders, particularly if nominating races remain unsettled up to the conventions.

By state law, Arizona’s convention delegates are pledged to support their candidates at least through the first ballot unless the candidate either withdraws or releases his or her delegates.

While each party’s Arizona ballot has 24 names, several on each ballot are of candidates who have withdrawn from the race. And most of the others are unknowns, including a slew from Arizona.

But one Arizonan, Republican Sen. John McCain, is seen as the favorite to win his home state’s primary. McCain has a record of strong re-election wins, and he led or apparently led the closest rival, Mitt Romney, in two recent Arizona polls.

However, only the statewide winner of the Republican Party gets any delegates: both the three top state party officials who are automatically delegates and the 50 slots that party meetings will fill in the spring.

“No math, no percentages here,” said Arizona Republican Party spokesman Tony Reinhard, offering a contrast to the Democrats’ multitiered formula for allocating delegations.

Mike Hellon, a McCain backer from Tucson who formerly served as Arizona’s Republican national committeeman, attributed the state GOP’s winner-take-all approach to tradition that carried through from the caucus system to the primary when it was created for the 1996 election.

On the other hand, the Democratic contest doles out delegates proportionate to voting results both statewide (19 delegates, in two categories) and by congressional districts (37, with anywhere from 3 to 6 per district).

A Democratic candidate has to get at least 15 percent of the vote to get delegates at any level. Votes cast for candidates getting less than 15 percent aren’t part of the mix when the delegates are apportioned at each level.

The proportional approach is common for Democrats nationally.

“The idea of a winner-take-all goes against a couple of things that committed Democrats want to see in the nominating process, which would be a chance for significant voices to be heard,” said Phoenix attorney Sam Coppersmith, a former state party chairman and a delegate to the 1996 convention.

Proportional representation could help Coppersmith’s candidate, Barack Obama, get delegates if Hillary Rodham Clinton gets more votes in Arizona. In Nevada, Obama actually got more delegates though Clinton got more votes statewide.

“It theoretically allows a candidate who finishes second to stay in the game by winning delegates,” said Coppersmith, who initially backed New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson in the presidential race until he withdrew.

However, “the problem is our nominating process isn’t decided by delegates. It’s this consensus-building machine” of politicos, pundits and the media who typically anoint a nominee well before a candidate has locked up enough delegates to win the nomination, Coppersmith said. “Maybe this year will be different.”

Super Tuesday

From The Associated Press

On Tuesday, Arizona and 23 other states plus American Samoa hold voting contests.

At stake are 1,681 Democratic delegates and 1,023 Republican delegates to the national presidental nominating conventions.

A candidate needs 2,025 delegates to secure the Democratic nomination and 1,191 to win the Republican nomination.

There will be voting in: Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia.