Editor’s Notes: Predictions for 2008

I should have made out like a bandit when I sent a friend in Las Vegas $100 to bet on Buster Douglas in his 1990 heavyweight championship fight with Mike Tyson.

At 42 to 1 odds, I should have collected $4,200 for picking one of the greatest upsets in sports history. There’s only one problem. My rotund friend, or should I say former friend, pocketed the $100 because he figured the so-called “Baddest Man on the Planet” would crush a journeyman like Douglas.

I tried to tell him I saw Douglas fight in person on the undercard of the Tim Witherspoon-Tony Tubbs heavyweight title bout in 1986. I was convinced that Douglas had the jab, style and guts to break Tyson’s will and aura of invincibility. He did.

Yes, nearly 20 years later, I am brooding over the $3,200, even though my buddy sheepishly sent me back the $100 with a sickening note saying he “owed me one.” Heck, he still owes me $4,100.

I bring up the ordeal as reinforcement for my end-of-the-year predictions. I am good at picking shockers, but sometimes I miss the forest for the trees.

I thought Al Gore and John Kerry would beat George Bush, for example, ignoring the realities of the electoral map.

I thought TV audiences would like Katie Couric on the “CBS Evening News” merely because she was so likable on NBC’s “Today” show.

I thought the furor over illegal immigration would die down by now, Instead, the issue burns nearly every candidate who touches it.

I thought Augusta Resource Corp. would have changed its mind about paying for a CAP pipeline extension into Green Valley. Who needs a fight over a water line when it faces a brouhaha over whether there should be a copper mine in the Santa Rita Mountains?

I thought officers on Green Valley Recreation’s board of directors, namely President Lou Lovat and Vice President Jim Burt, would learn to play nicely in 2007 after being targeted so frequently by their critics.

With that said, here are five predictions for 2008 you can take to the bank at your own peril. Just made sure your buddy actually makes it to the teller’s window.

Gabrielle Giffords versus Tim Bee: U.S. Rep. Giffords, D-Ariz., who won election to Congress in 2006, faces one of the toughest re-election campaigns in the country for an incumbent Democrat.

In a year that will see Democrats pick up more House and Senate seats, and possibly take over the White House, state Senate President Bee will be incredibly hard to defeat.

Bee made one major mistake as he contemplated whether to run. He decided to keep his state Senate seat. He should have resigned, or should step down early in 2008, to campaign. It’s impossible for him to preside over a legislative session that will include contentious issues such as the employer sanctions law and budget deficit and run for Congress.

Bee’s supporters point out he has no opposition in the Republican primary, freeing him to serve until summer and then focus on Giffords. Wrong move. By June or July, it will be too late. He needs a list of reasons for voters to turn out Giffords, especially after one term. He can’t make the case overnight.

Giffords, whose shrewdness belies her age, 37, will charm enough voters to win in a squeaker.

John McCain, new comeback kid: The assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and subsequent terrorist attacks in 2008 will force Republican voters to rethink their presidential preference at the last minute.

The thought of foreign-policy novices Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in the White House should send chills down the spine of every card-carrying member of the GOP.

If Republicans go to their convention around Labor Day split on a nominee, McCain will emerge as the consensus candidate.

The last time Republicans were this split, they wound up picking the more liberal Thomas Dewey over conservative Robert A. Taft at the 1948 convention to run against Harry Truman. As in 1948, Republicans and independents will view moderate McCain as more palatable and electable than his reactionary opponents.

First-run movies at home: Movie studios want to sell new releases directly to homes, but skeptics say there’s no way to protect the product from pirates and to equal the in-theater experience.

Customers want better movies on demand, though, and falling box-office receipts will force a compromise.

Cable companies and satellite television providers have power over what you will watch and how you’ll be entertained in 2008.

The sale of high-definition televisions will continue to break records and bring the capability to enjoy movies in your living room and den as much as the theater.

Internet video will improve, with some YouTube, Google and Yahoo clips exceeding the number of viewers who will see movie blockbusters such as 2008’s “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince.”

Super Bowl in Arizona: Contrary to widespread belief, the New England Patriots will lose Super Bowl XLII on Feb. 3 in Glendale.

Final score: Dallas Cowboys 31, Patriots 24, with the Cowboys winning despite being two-touchdown underdogs.

There’s a good chance the Patriots will lose to the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC title game.

Mortgage crisis: The federal government’s weak response to the wave of foreclosures will exacerbate the problem.

Foreclosures will double in 2008, without a plan to rescue borrowers from the mess. The fallout will lower the prices of homes in Arizona, causing more mortgage companies to close and finally forcing politicians to listen to their constituents, not fat cats who run banks and lending institutions.

I’d be interested in reading your predictions for 2008. Send them to me or post them online.

In the meantime, Happy New Year!

Contact Editor James Bennett at jbennett@gvnews.com or 547-9770. Respond to this column by e-mailing letters@gvnews.com. Comment online at www.gvnews.com.