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Earnings still a key to investment success

By Lee C. Eisinberg
Published: Friday, September 17, 2004 6:27 AM MST


When some dotcom companies' stock prices were shooting up, a lot of investors downplayed the importance of traditional measures of stock valuation -- such as earnings.

Many of those high-flying Internet companies were losing money, quarter after quarter. Yet, investors flocked to them, attracted by their business models, their impressive sales and their very presence in a fast-growing market.

To these investors, the notion of earnings began to look like an antiquated yardstick, suitable only for those stodgy Old Economy stocks.

Then, some of the skyrocketing dotcoms fell to earth. And suddenly, investors began to realize that blue-chip stocks earned that designation by achieving a long, steady history of earnings.

Earnings are important to a stock's success. But the earnings issue may not be as clear-cut as you'd imagine. When looking at a company's earnings in relation to its stock price, keep two things in mind:

  • Solid companies, with good prospects, can still turn in poor earnings results -- A company's earnings can suffer from any of a variety of factors: an economic slowdown, product difficulties, execution issues, etc. Typically, these problems are temporary -- and a solid company with strong fundamentals can eventually transcend them. As an investor, then, you have to be able to look past a bad earnings report and see a company for what it truly is.


  • The market may not immediately reward companies whose current earnings reports are good -- Here's a paradox: Even if a company does turn in a good earnings report, its stock price may not get a boost.

    Why is that? Doesn't the market like earnings? Actually, it does. But it often focuses its attention on tomorrow's earnings more than today's.

    The market is always looking ahead at the factors that may be affecting next quarter's -- and next year's -- earnings. Is the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates? Will consumer spending remain strong? These are the sort of questions the market needs answered before it expresses its confidence in stocks, in the form of higher prices.

    Here's the bottom line: earnings count. If they're weak, find out if the cause is transitory. If they're strong, try to determine if they're going to stay that way. It can be challenging to gauge a stock's prospects by looking at its earnings -- but it's an exercise that's well worth your time.

    This article is provided by Lee C. Eisin-berg, an Associate Vice President-Financial Consultant at RBC Dain Rauscher in Phoe-nix, and was prepared by or in cooperation with RBC Dain Rauscher. Lee can be reached at (602) 508-7863 or e-mail at lee.eisinberg@rbcdain.com. The information included in this article is not intended to be used as the primary basis for making investment decisions nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Consult your investment professional for additional information and guidance.



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